More chicken, less pork: how the EU meat industry will change by 2035

      Beef and pork production in the European Union will decrease, but poultry meat production will increase.

      This is stated in the "EU Agricultural Development Forecast for 2024-2035" prepared by the European Commission.

     "Beef production and consumption will continue to fall and will decrease by 450 thousand tons to 6.30 million tons by 2035 (-6.7% compared to 2022-2024)," the report says.

     By 2035, per capita beef consumption may fall from 9.80 kg per year to 9.20 kg per year (-5.9%).

Live animal exports from the EU will gradually decline by 3.20% per year between 2022-2024 and 2035, however, meat exports from the EU will continue to grow until 2035 (+0.9% per year).

     Beef prices will tend to rise, reaching around 6,000 euros/ton by 2035.

     At the same time, intensive pork production systems are likely to face further public criticism in the coming years. African swine fever (ASF), combined with the introduction of stricter laws in some EU countries and reduced export opportunities, will lead to a reduction in production by 0.50% annually, or 1.20 million tons compared to 2022-2024.

     Per capita pork consumption will decline by 0.40%, dropping to 30 kg in 2035 (a drop of 5.0% compared to the already lower levels recorded between 2022 and 2024 compared to the pre-2021 levels).

     Pork exports from the EU may decline by 1% per year between now and 2035. EU pork imports are forecast to remain low with a decline of 2.20% annually.

     In the medium term, pork prices may remain higher due to rising costs and limited supply in the EU and reach €2,210/ton by 2035.

     The European Commission believes that changes in the structure of consumption in the EU, together with increasing export opportunities, will increase poultry meat production in the EU by 770 thousand tons in the period until 2035 (+0.5% per year to the average of 2022-2024).

     Poultry meat consumption per capital in the EU is forecast to grow by 0.50% annually — from 24.2 kg to 25.8 kg.

     Poultry exports from the EU will slowly grow by 0.80% per year in the coming years, reaching a level of more than 2 million tons.

     By 2035, imports of poultry meat are likely to grow by 0.90% per year compared to the average, to the level of 904 thousand tons. Poultry meat prices will continue to rise to 2,730 euros/ton until 2035.

Source:  Tridge Trend